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Tag: Risk Analysis
Does Living in America’s Wealthiest Communities Make You Safer?
Nationwide study published in Risk Analysis, compares the concentration of hazards and risks for the richest and poorest counties and municipalities in all 50 states (200 locations). Wealthier communities face higher economic consequences from natural hazard events compared to the poorest, mostly rural communities. The lowest-income municipalities have fewer impact from natural hazards, but at least 50% higher suicide and homicide rates, and firearm fatalities.
Assessment of How Climate Scientists Communicate Risk Shows Imperfections, Improvements
Scientists have long struggled to find the best way to present crucial facts about future sea level rise, but are getting better at communicating more clearly, according to an international group of climate scientists, including a leading Rutgers expert.
Enterprise Risk Consortium Forthcoming from UMD Smith
Risk management expert Clifford Rossi to lead initiative targeting risk practitioners in response to evolving climate change events and recent bank failures.
Finance expert explains what the Silicon Valley Bank collapse means for the banking sector
The rapid collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history, has caused ongoing worries about the stability of the nation’s banking system even as federal authorities step in to manage the crisis. Further anxieties arose with the federal takeover of cryptocurrency-focused Signature Bank — the third largest bank failure in U.
A mechanistic and probabilistic method for predicting wildfires
Data shows that between 2016-2020, at least five of the top 20 most destructive California wildfires started from power systems. Paired with the extreme weather conditions and nearby vegetation, power system-ignited incidents are more likely to develop into large, intense wildfires.
UTEP to Lead New Earthquake Center with Support from National Science Foundation
A $500,000 grant from the National Science Foundation will spur The University of Texas at El Paso’s efforts to help underserved communities across the nation become more resilient to earthquakes.
Food Safety Organizations Team Up to Strengthen Research, Education and Protections
IAFNS and IAFP establish new memorandum of understanding to strengthen collaboration on food safety issues.
Wildfires disproportionately affect the poor
With fires raging from California to Alaska, the 2022 wildfire season is off to a violent start. It’s an ominous sign of what promises to be another record-breaking fire season in the U.S. Roughly 2 million acres burned last month. And major fires are currently scorching Idaho, Utah and California, threatening tens of thousands of Americans’ homes and livelihoods. Many of those at risk are lower-income Americans who face canceled homeowners insurance policies and rising premiums, according to new research from the University of Georgia.
SEIR Model to Address the Impact of Face Masks amid COVID-19 Pandemic
When vaccines are not available, alternative strategies are required to decrease SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Behavior of the population and government regulations, such as hand hygiene, quarantine of exposed persons, isolation of symptomatic persons, and travel restriction, play an essential role in…
HOW WILL HUMANS SURVIVE A GLOBAL CATASTROPHE?
One suggested way to save humankind in the event of a deadly pandemic or other extreme global catastrophe is establishing a safe refuge – on an island or in such far-out places as the moon or under water — where a portion of the human population can stay alive.
STUDY WEIGHS THE RISKS OF CLIMATE GEOENGINEERING
To slow down the accelerating pace of climate change, scientists are working on radical geoengineering technologies like space mirrors, ocean iron fertilization, and cirrus cloud thinning to tweak the earth’s climate system. But a new study published in the journal Risk Analysis finds that none of these human interventions are risk free. Instead, “they merely shift risk or redistribute it,” says lead author Benjamin Sovacool, professor of energy policy at the University of Sussex Business School and a professor at Aarhus University and Boston University. “These risk tradeoffs must be evaluated if some of the more radical geoengineering technologies are to be deployed.”
New Research Analyzes Millions of Twitter Posts During Hurricanes to Understand How People Communicate in a Disaster
In the face of a potentially disastrous storm like Hurricane Ida, people take to Twitter and other social media sites to communicate vital information. New research published in the journal Risk Analysis suggests that monitoring and analyzing this social media “chatter” during a natural disaster could help decision makers learn how to plan for and mitigate the impacts of severe weather events in their communities.
Deterrence against terrorist attacks in sports-mega events: A method to identify the optimal portfolio of defensive countermeasures
Sports mega-events, such as the upcoming Olympic Games, are ideal targets for terrorist attacks, due to their visibility, size, and number of people involved. Sports mega-events differ from other well-studied counter-terrorism analysis due to the defensive measures being made public…
Earthquake Threat! Understanding the Intention to Prepare for the Big One
How do people in high-risk regions for natural disasters, perceive risks and what influences their intentions to prepare? A new study, soon to be published in the journal Risk Analysis, investigates whether residents of higher-risk earthquake areas within the region…
STUDY FINDS AN OIL SPILL IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC COULD BE DEVASTATING FOR THE ENVIRONMENT AND INDIGENOUS PEOPLES
As melting sea ice brings more ships through the Northwest Passage, new research shows that Canada must prepare for the costs and consequences of an Arctic oil spill
After the Big Storm: How to Supply Emergency Power to Residents of Rural and Suburban Communities During Multi-Day Outages
New research suggests that cooperative strategies for sharing emergency power among households can be 10 to 40 times less costly than running individual gas-powered generators
Organizational Resilience to Disruption Risks: Developing Metrics and Testing Effectiveness of Operational Strategies
This study draws from the system resilience literature to propose three different metrics for evaluating the resilience performance of organizations against disruptions: the initial loss due to the disruption, the maximum loss, and the total loss over time. The first…
System analysis of wildfire-water supply risk in Colorado, U.S.A. with Monte Carlo wildfire and rainfall simulation
Water supply impairment from increased contaminant mobilization and transport after a wildfire is a major concern for communities that depend on surface water from fire prone watersheds. This work demonstrates the importance of considering water system characteristics when assessing wildfire…
Assessing the Risk of Robbery in Bank Branches to Reduce Impact on Personnel
Although bank robbery has been declining over the last decades, there are still offenders willing to rob bank branches, even if economic benefits are small. The impact from bank robberies goes well beyond the direct economic loss with considerable human toll and possible psychological after-effects on employees, customers or police officers. Sometimes, the consequences are fatal.
Assessing the Outbreak Risk of Epidemics Using Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning
While epidemic diseases (EDs) continue to pose a challenging risk that endangers public health, they tend to attract little attention regarding risk assessment in the current literature. Tackling ED risks becomes complicated when the needed advanced techniques designed to assess…
Multihazards Scenario Generator: A Network‐Based Simulation of Natural Disasters
As the impact of natural disasters increases over the years, there are still few studies that quantify the dynamic interactions that characterize multihazard events. Without considering the dynamic complexity of natural catastrophes, impact assessments underestimate risk and misinform emergency management…
How do People Judge Risk? Availability may Upstage Affect in the Construction of Risk Judgments
In a new study published in the journal Risk Analysis, author Emir Efendić explores how people judge risk. Heuristics are cognitive shortcuts that people use when problem solving. It has been discovered that people rely on availability and affect as…
HOW MANY COUNTRIES ARE READY FOR NUCLEAR-POWERED ELECTRICITY?
A new study in the journal Risk Analysis suggests that countries representing more than 80 percent of potential growth in low-carbon electricity demand—in Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa—may lack the economic or institutional quality to deploy nuclear power to meet their energy needs. The authors suggest that if nuclear power is to safely expand its role in mitigating climate change, countries need to radically improve their ability to manage the technology.
THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT OF VOLCANO ALERTS
The Volcano Alert Level (VAL) system, standardized by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in 2006, is meant to save lives and keep citizens living in the shadow of an active volcano informed of their current level of risk. A new study published in Risk Analysis suggests that, when an alert remains elevated at any level above “normal” due to a period of volcanic unrest, it can cause a decline in the region’s housing prices and other economic indicators. Because of this, the authors argue that federal policymakers may need to account for the effects of prolonged volcanic unrest — not just destructive eruptions — in the provision of disaster relief funding.
HOW COULD RISING SEA LEVEL IMPACT THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM?
Insurance policy premiums from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) allow policyholders to maintain a lower, grandfathered rate even when the risk escalates. But as coastal flooding increases due to rising sea level and more intense storms, new research published in the journal Risk Analysis suggests this grandfathered policy could lead to big losses for the NFIP.
A team of experts led by Carolyn Kousky, executive director of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, studied the effect of sea level rise on a New York City neighborhood to illustrate how grandfathered rates could impact both policyholder premiums and program revenue for the NFIP over the next 30 years. Their results project losses to the NFIP as flood risk grows in the coming decades.
WHAT MOTIVATES NATURAL RESOURCE POLICYMAKERS IN AFRICA TO TAKE ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE?
Climate services are vital tools for decision makers addressing climate change in developing countries. Science-based seasonal forecasts and accompanying materials can support climate risk management in agriculture, health, water management, energy, and disaster risk reduction.
But in East Africa, natural resource managers have been slow to use climate information services, partly because they are difficult to understand and may not feel relevant for their local planning purposes. A new study published by the journal Risk Analysis suggests that one way to encourage policymakers in East Africa to use climate services more often is to appeal to the motivational factors that influence their professional actions on climate change.
GLOBAL POLIOVIRUS RISK MANAGEMENT AND MODELING
Launched in 1988, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) stands out as one of the largest, internationally coordinated global public health major projects conducted to date, with cumulative spending of over $16.5 billion for 1988–2018, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). More than 30 years later, stubborn outbreaks of wild poliovirus still occur in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where cases have been increasing since 2018. The global eradication of polio continues to be an elusive goal.
PEOPLE BLAME A VEHICLE’S AUTOMATED SYSTEM MORE THAN ITS DRIVER WHEN ACCIDENTS HAPPEN
A new study in the journal Risk Analysis found that people are more likely to blame a vehicle’s automation system and its manufacturer than its human driver when a crash occurs.
TAKING THE FEAR OUT OF DRIVER EDUCATION
New drivers between the ages of 15 and 25 account for nearly half of the more than one million road deaths that occur worldwide each year, according to the World Health Organization. Educational programs often use fear-based messaging and films of crash scenes to reduce risky driving behavior among young people. But does this “scary” approach work?
Risk analysis helps contend with uncertainty of in-person activities
People now have access to better real-time information about COVID-19 infection and transmission rates, but they still have to decide what is safe to do. A new model co-authored by mathematician John McCarthy at Washington University in St. Louis helps to contend with the uncertainty.
Society for Risk Analysis Inducts Three Visionaries to the Pantheon of Risk Analysis
The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) inducted Eula Bingham, Steve Rayner and Martin Weitzman to the Pantheon of Risk Analysis. The Pantheon, established in 2008, recognizes luminaries and visionaries in risk analysis and serves to illustrate how the field contributes to the advancement of knowledge and public good.
Fourteen Honored by Society for Risk Analysis
Over the course of its virtual Annual Meeting, the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) awarded six prestigious scholarly and service awards and named seven new Fellows. These awards recognize 14 individuals for their outstanding contributions to the society and to the science of risk analysis. The recipients were nominated by their peers, selected by a committee of SRA members and approved by the SRA Council.
Society for Risk Analysis Announces Its New 2021 Council
During its virtual Annual Meeting, the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) announced the addition of five new Council members and the rise of Robyn Wilson Ph.D., The Ohio State University, as the new President of its 2021 Council. Wilson succeeds Seth Guikema, Ph.D., University of Michigan, who has completed his term and will continue to serve on the Council as past-president.
Two New Studies Offer Ways to Avert Accidents and Workplace Injuries for American Workers
Human error is a causal factor in up to 80 percent of workplace accidents. A new study measuring the eye movements and cognitive processes for at-risk workers, sheds new light on the potential to avert accidents and possibly prevent workplace injuries. The study “Measuring attention, working memory, and visual perception to reduce risk of injuries in the construction industry,” by Behzad Esmaeili, Ph.D., George Mason University challenges the conventional, reactionary paradigm of safety-risk management.
Drinking Water Significant Source of Microplastics in Human Diet
In an effort to understand the potential risks associated with exposure to micro/nanoplastics, the Emerging Risks of Micro/nanoplastics: Perspectives From Diverse Sectors symposia at the 2020 Society for Risk Analysis virtual Annual Meeting, December 13-17, 2020, aims to highlight the current state of knowledge associated with physical and chemical transformation, hazard characterization, environmental effects, social implications and policy limitations.
Beyond the Illness: How COVID-19 is Negatively Impacting Those Who are not Infected
The pandemic has impacted farmers, children, plant workers and even office workers in unique ways that go beyond physical illness. Several studies that explore these individualized effects will be presented during the Individual Impacts of Global Pandemic Risks session and the COVID-19: Risk Communication and Social Dynamics of Transmission and Vulnerability symposia, both from 2:30-4:00 p.m. ET on December 15, at the 2020 Society for Risk Analysis virtual Annual Meeting, December 13-17, 2020.
Who’s to Blame? How the Media Has Shaped Public Understanding of the COVID-19 Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. has been characterized by rapidly changing information, a high degree of uncertainty, and conflicting information about transmission, vulnerability and mitigation methods. Several studies focused on public perceptions of the pandemic and the impact of media will be presented during two sessions on December 15, from 2:30-4:00 during the Society for Risk Analysis virtual Annual Meeting, December 13-17, 2020.
3D Printers May Be Toxic for Humans
Several studies that aim to characterize and quantify the release and composition, particle size, and residence time in the indoor environment will be presented in the Exposure and Risk Assessment of 3D Printing and Emerging Materials symposium on December 15, from 12:00-1:30 p.m. ET at the 2020 Society for Risk Analysis virtual Annual Meeting held December 13-17, 2020.
Presidential roundtable discussion: How do we restore science to policy making? Presidential roundtable discussion: How do we restore science to policy making?
Restoring science in the White House is the topic of the presidential roundtable discussion at that the Society for Risk Analysis’ (SRA) Virtual Annual Meeting, on Thursday, December 17 from 12:00 – 1:30 p.m. ET.
Modernizing Financial Data the Focus of Dec. 15 Webinar Hosted by Maryland Smith
Experts representing academia and industry will discuss the prospect for improving standards and adopting new technologies to address weaknesses in the financial data that banks, regulators and the public depend on to evaluate financial risks
New Data on Increasing Cloth Mask Effectiveness
A new study published in Risk Analysis, “Reinventing cloth masks in the face of pandemics,” by Stephen Salter, P.Eng., describes how Effective Fiber Mask Programs (EFMPs) can help communities find a balance between the economy and curbing community spread.
Weighing Risks and Benefits for Glaucoma Patients During COVID-19
Michigan Medicine ophthalmologists create a scalable algorithm for triaging appointments during the pandemic.
USDA Says Current Poultry Food Safety Guidelines Do Not Stop Salmonella Outbreaks
Current poultry food safety guidelines for Salmonella, the leading cause of foodborne illness outbreaks, are inadequate. A new study conducted by Thomas Oscar, USDA Agricultural Research Service, “Salmonella prevalence alone is not a good indicator of poultry food safety,” published in Risk Analysis, explores additional factors that must be considered in order to identify poultry products that are truly safe for human consumption.
First-of-its-kind Collateral Risk Education Series Launches Sept. 14
Clifford Rossi, formerly a risk executive for the likes of Citi and Countrywide, directs an online series at the intersections of mortgage collateral valuation and risk management. Vigilance against deficiency in this area, he says, “is particularly critical as markets are supply constrained and getting the appraisal right is essential.”
Atlantic Hurricane Season and Mortgage Default Risk
Maryland Smith finance professor and former risk executive Clifford Rossi’s new study examines the future implications of a predicted increase in hurricane activity for the likes of borrowers and mortgage credit investors.
Rutgers Expert Can Discuss New Home and Property Flood Risk Data
New Brunswick, N.J. (June 29, 2020) – Rutgers University–New Brunswick professor Robert E. Kopp is available for interviews on new flood risk data for more than 142 million homes and properties in the United States. The data were released by the First Street Foundation, a…
Society for Risk Analysis to Host Webinar on Aerosol Transmission of COVID-19
The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA), the world’s leading authority on risk sciences and its applications, is hosting a webinar on Thursday, June 11 at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest research on aerosol transmission of COVID-19.
Exploring the Zoonotic Origins of COVID-19
Around the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a lot of dialog surrounding its zoonotic origins, or its transmission from animals to humans. A new study explores how zoonotic origins are communicated can influence risk perception and preventative behaviors, including how people interact with animals that are known to be possible sources of a disease.
Study Finds Breathing and Talking Contribute to COVID-19 Spread
Current knowledge about the role of aerosols in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 warrants urgent attention. Current guidance and public health information has slowly shifted focus towards aerosols as a transmission pathway – predominantly associated with breathing and talking by asymptomatic individuals. Providing guidelines for sufficient inhalation protection will be important in curbing the spread of COVID-19.