Does Living in America’s Wealthiest Communities Make You Safer?

Nationwide study published in Risk Analysis, compares the concentration of hazards and risks for the richest and poorest counties and municipalities in all 50 states (200 locations). Wealthier communities face higher economic consequences from natural hazard events compared to the poorest, mostly rural communities. The lowest-income municipalities have fewer impact from natural hazards, but at least 50% higher suicide and homicide rates, and firearm fatalities.

SEIR Model to Address the Impact of Face Masks amid COVID-19 Pandemic

When vaccines are not available, alternative strategies are required to decrease SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Behavior of the population and government regulations, such as hand hygiene, quarantine of exposed persons, isolation of symptomatic persons, and travel restriction, play an essential role in…

HOW WILL HUMANS SURVIVE A GLOBAL CATASTROPHE?

One suggested way to save humankind in the event of a deadly pandemic or other extreme global catastrophe is establishing a safe refuge – on an island or in such far-out places as the moon or under water — where a portion of the human population can stay alive.

STUDY WEIGHS THE RISKS OF CLIMATE GEOENGINEERING

To slow down the accelerating pace of climate change, scientists are working on radical geoengineering technologies like space mirrors, ocean iron fertilization, and cirrus cloud thinning to tweak the earth’s climate system. But a new study published in the journal Risk Analysis finds that none of these human interventions are risk free. Instead, “they merely shift risk or redistribute it,” says lead author Benjamin Sovacool, professor of energy policy at the University of Sussex Business School and a professor at Aarhus University and Boston University. “These risk tradeoffs must be evaluated if some of the more radical geoengineering technologies are to be deployed.”

New Research Analyzes Millions of Twitter Posts During Hurricanes to Understand How People Communicate in a Disaster

In the face of a potentially disastrous storm like Hurricane Ida, people take to Twitter and other social media sites to communicate vital information. New research published in the journal Risk Analysis suggests that monitoring and analyzing this social media “chatter” during a natural disaster could help decision makers learn how to plan for and mitigate the impacts of severe weather events in their communities.

Deterrence against terrorist attacks in sports-mega events: A method to identify the optimal portfolio of defensive countermeasures

Sports mega-events, such as the upcoming Olympic Games, are ideal targets for terrorist attacks, due to their visibility, size, and number of people involved. Sports mega-events differ from other well-studied counter-terrorism analysis due to the defensive measures being made public…

Earthquake Threat! Understanding the Intention to Prepare for the Big One

How do people in high-risk regions for natural disasters, perceive risks and what influences their intentions to prepare? A new study, soon to be published in the journal Risk Analysis, investigates whether residents of higher-risk earthquake areas within the region…

After the Big Storm: How to Supply Emergency Power to Residents of Rural and Suburban Communities During Multi-Day Outages

New research suggests that cooperative strategies for sharing emergency power among households can be 10 to 40 times less costly than running individual gas-powered generators

Organizational Resilience to Disruption Risks: Developing Metrics and Testing Effectiveness of Operational Strategies

This study draws from the system resilience literature to propose three different metrics for evaluating the resilience performance of organizations against disruptions: the initial loss due to the disruption, the maximum loss, and the total loss over time. The first…

System analysis of wildfire-water supply risk in Colorado, U.S.A. with Monte Carlo wildfire and rainfall simulation

Water supply impairment from increased contaminant mobilization and transport after a wildfire is a major concern for communities that depend on surface water from fire prone watersheds. This work demonstrates the importance of considering water system characteristics when assessing wildfire…

Assessing the Risk of Robbery in Bank Branches to Reduce Impact on Personnel

Although bank robbery has been declining over the last decades, there are still offenders willing to rob bank branches, even if economic benefits are small. The impact from bank robberies goes well beyond the direct economic loss with considerable human toll and possible psychological after-effects on employees, customers or police officers. Sometimes, the consequences are fatal.

Assessing the Outbreak Risk of Epidemics Using Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning

While epidemic diseases (EDs) continue to pose a challenging risk that endangers public health, they tend to attract little attention regarding risk assessment in the current literature. Tackling ED risks becomes complicated when the needed advanced techniques designed to assess…

THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT OF VOLCANO ALERTS

The Volcano Alert Level (VAL) system, standardized by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in 2006, is meant to save lives and keep citizens living in the shadow of an active volcano informed of their current level of risk. A new study published in Risk Analysis suggests that, when an alert remains elevated at any level above “normal” due to a period of volcanic unrest, it can cause a decline in the region’s housing prices and other economic indicators. Because of this, the authors argue that federal policymakers may need to account for the effects of prolonged volcanic unrest — not just destructive eruptions — in the provision of disaster relief funding.

HOW COULD RISING SEA LEVEL IMPACT THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM?

Insurance policy premiums from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) allow policyholders to maintain a lower, grandfathered rate even when the risk escalates. But as coastal flooding increases due to rising sea level and more intense storms, new research published in the journal Risk Analysis suggests this grandfathered policy could lead to big losses for the NFIP.

A team of experts led by Carolyn Kousky, executive director of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, studied the effect of sea level rise on a New York City neighborhood to illustrate how grandfathered rates could impact both policyholder premiums and program revenue for the NFIP over the next 30 years. Their results project losses to the NFIP as flood risk grows in the coming decades.

WHAT MOTIVATES NATURAL RESOURCE POLICYMAKERS IN AFRICA TO TAKE ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE?

Climate services are vital tools for decision makers addressing climate change in developing countries. Science-based seasonal forecasts and accompanying materials can support climate risk management in agriculture, health, water management, energy, and disaster risk reduction.

But in East Africa, natural resource managers have been slow to use climate information services, partly because they are difficult to understand and may not feel relevant for their local planning purposes. A new study published by the journal Risk Analysis suggests that one way to encourage policymakers in East Africa to use climate services more often is to appeal to the motivational factors that influence their professional actions on climate change.

GLOBAL POLIOVIRUS RISK MANAGEMENT AND MODELING

Launched in 1988, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) stands out as one of the largest, internationally coordinated global public health major projects conducted to date, with cumulative spending of over $16.5 billion for 1988–2018, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). More than 30 years later, stubborn outbreaks of wild poliovirus still occur in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where cases have been increasing since 2018. The global eradication of polio continues to be an elusive goal.

TAKING THE FEAR OUT OF DRIVER EDUCATION

New drivers between the ages of 15 and 25 account for nearly half of the more than one million road deaths that occur worldwide each year, according to the World Health Organization. Educational programs often use fear-based messaging and films of crash scenes to reduce risky driving behavior among young people. But does this “scary” approach work?

USDA Says Current Poultry Food Safety Guidelines Do Not Stop Salmonella Outbreaks

Current poultry food safety guidelines for Salmonella, the leading cause of foodborne illness outbreaks, are inadequate. A new study conducted by Thomas Oscar, USDA Agricultural Research Service, “Salmonella prevalence alone is not a good indicator of poultry food safety,” published in Risk Analysis, explores additional factors that must be considered in order to identify poultry products that are truly safe for human consumption.