Deterrence against terrorist attacks in sports-mega events: A method to identify the optimal portfolio of defensive countermeasures

Sports mega-events, such as the upcoming Olympic Games, are ideal targets for terrorist attacks, due to their visibility, size, and number of people involved. Sports mega-events differ from other well-studied counter-terrorism analysis due to the defensive measures being made public…

Earthquake Threat! Understanding the Intention to Prepare for the Big One

How do people in high-risk regions for natural disasters, perceive risks and what influences their intentions to prepare? A new study, soon to be published in the journal Risk Analysis, investigates whether residents of higher-risk earthquake areas within the region…

After the Big Storm: How to Supply Emergency Power to Residents of Rural and Suburban Communities During Multi-Day Outages

New research suggests that cooperative strategies for sharing emergency power among households can be 10 to 40 times less costly than running individual gas-powered generators

Organizational Resilience to Disruption Risks: Developing Metrics and Testing Effectiveness of Operational Strategies

This study draws from the system resilience literature to propose three different metrics for evaluating the resilience performance of organizations against disruptions: the initial loss due to the disruption, the maximum loss, and the total loss over time. The first…

System analysis of wildfire-water supply risk in Colorado, U.S.A. with Monte Carlo wildfire and rainfall simulation

Water supply impairment from increased contaminant mobilization and transport after a wildfire is a major concern for communities that depend on surface water from fire prone watersheds. This work demonstrates the importance of considering water system characteristics when assessing wildfire…

SPECIAL ISSUE ON THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

The international journal Risk Analysis has published a timely special issue for May 2021, “Global Systemic Risk and Resilience for Novel Coronavirus and COVID-19.” Featuring 11 papers written for this issue over the past year, the collection represents a sampling of insights and viewpoints from scholars across risk sciences and resilience analytics to guide decision-making and operations related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Multihazards Scenario Generator: A Network‐Based Simulation of Natural Disasters

As the impact of natural disasters increases over the years, there are still few studies that quantify the dynamic interactions that characterize multihazard events. Without considering the dynamic complexity of natural catastrophes, impact assessments underestimate risk and misinform emergency management…

HOW MANY COUNTRIES ARE READY FOR NUCLEAR-POWERED ELECTRICITY?

A new study in the journal Risk Analysis suggests that countries representing more than 80 percent of potential growth in low-carbon electricity demand—in Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa—may lack the economic or institutional quality to deploy nuclear power to meet their energy needs. The authors suggest that if nuclear power is to safely expand its role in mitigating climate change, countries need to radically improve their ability to manage the technology.

GLOBAL POLIOVIRUS RISK MANAGEMENT AND MODELING

Launched in 1988, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) stands out as one of the largest, internationally coordinated global public health major projects conducted to date, with cumulative spending of over $16.5 billion for 1988–2018, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). More than 30 years later, stubborn outbreaks of wild poliovirus still occur in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where cases have been increasing since 2018. The global eradication of polio continues to be an elusive goal.

Two New Studies Offer Ways to Avert Accidents and Workplace Injuries for American Workers

Human error is a causal factor in up to 80 percent of workplace accidents. A new study measuring the eye movements and cognitive processes for at-risk workers, sheds new light on the potential to avert accidents and possibly prevent workplace injuries. The study “Measuring attention, working memory, and visual perception to reduce risk of injuries in the construction industry,” by Behzad Esmaeili, Ph.D., George Mason University challenges the conventional, reactionary paradigm of safety-risk management.