Republican politicians will watch Trump’s approval rating closely following storming of Capitol

The storming of the Capitol on Wednesday, Jan. 6 will cause Republicans politicians to watch the polls closely to see if Trump has lost his grip on the GOP base, according to Jonathan Krasno, associate professor of political science at Binghamton University, State University of New York.

“There’s no question that yesterday’s violence shocked a number of Republican politicians, and I’d guess a part of the GOP base,” said Krasno. “It’s really a no-win situation for the politicians. Keep mollifying Trump, hoping to keep the current coalition together, and risk the support of more mainstream Reps. Cross him and you’re Mike Pence.”

According to Kranso, Republican politicians will be looking at the polls “like crazy” to see if Trump’s grip on the GOP base has slipped. 

“We know it has from the amount of ticket splitting in November. The prob is that even if his approval rate plummets from 90 to 45 %, they’ll know Trump’s 45% is the most committed part of the GOP,” he said. “And it won’t have escaped any of their notice that he pledged to help primary weak’ Republicans in 2022. So it’s notable that there were still over 100 GOP House members voting against certification. They don’t think the violence changed their (local) political circumstances.”