New tool predicts stroke outcome with 93% accuracy, guiding better carotid surgery decisions

NEW ORLEANS – Stroke remains a global health challenge, ranking second in worldwide mortality and fifth in U.S. deaths. In response, researchers at Ochsner Health, led by Hernan Bazan, MD, DFSVS, FACS, have developed a predictive model with a 93% accuracy rate in determining whether urgent carotid-intervention patients will regain functional independence. This study, “Precision in Stroke Care: A Novel Model for Predicting Functional Independence in Urgent Carotid Intervention Patients,” is now available in the Journal of the American College of Surgeons.  

This advanced model uses a data-driven approach that combines four critical clinical metrics—stroke severity, frailty risk score, timing of intervention, and the use of thrombolysis—to create a real-time decision-making tool. By leveraging these variables, physicians can improve patient care by tailoring treatment plans, optimizing intervention timing, and ensuring that the most appropriate patients receive these complex procedures.  

“We are entering a new era of stroke care where data-driven insights guide every decision,” said Bazan, senior author and the John Ochsner Professor of Cardiovascular Innovation at Ochsner Health. “By integrating a real-time frailty risk score into the electronic medical record (EMR), presenting stroke severity and other variables, we can proactively identify who will benefit from immediate surgery and who may need ‘pre-habilitating’ before surgery to achieve better outcomes. This model aligns with the 2025 Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) initiatives, including value-based care and age-friendly health system measures, while supporting our mission to deliver improved outcomes and quality care for every patient.”  

Stroke care presents distinct challenges that require swift action and informed decisions. By integrating this model into routine clinical workflows, Ochsner is empowering healthcare teams with tools to anticipate patient outcomes with greater accuracy. This allows for more refined, patient-centered care strategies that enhance both short-term recoveries and long-term quality of life. 

“Predicting a patient’s recovery potential with such reliability gives us an unprecedented level of confidence in our treatment decisions,” added Leo Seoane, MD, executive vice president and chief academic officer at Ochsner Health and founding dean for the Xavier Ochsner College of Medicine. “This innovation ensures that every patient receives the care best suited to their situation, further advancing our commitment to excellence.” 

For information about this study, please contact [email protected]. 

Reference: 

Bazan HA et al. “Precision in Stroke Care: A Novel Model for Predicting Functional Independence in Urgent Carotid Intervention Patients” Journal of the American College of Surgeons 2025 DOI: 10.1097/XCS.0000000000001276 

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About Ochsner Health  

Ochsner Health is the leading nonprofit healthcare provider in the Gulf South, delivering expert care at its 46 hospitals and more than 370 health and urgent care centers. For 13 consecutive years, U.S. News & World Report has recognized Ochsner as the No. 1 hospital in Louisiana. Additionally, Ochsner Children’s has been recognized as the No. 1 hospital for kids in Louisiana for four consecutive years. Ochsner inspires healthier lives and stronger communities through a combination of standard-setting expertise, quality and digital connectivity not found anywhere else in the region. In 2024, Ochsner Health cared for more than 1.5 million people from every state in the nation and 63 countries. Ochsner’s workforce includes more than 40,000 dedicated team members and over 4,700 employed and affiliated physicians. To learn more about how Ochsner empowers people to get well and stay well, visit https://www.ochsner.org/.