Expert shares what prisoner exchange means for U.S., Russia, Ukraine war

The surprising news that Russia has released two well-known American detainees, Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and ex-United States Marine Paul Whelan, has proved to be part of a larger exchange involving at least 24 prisoners and seven countries, the largest East-West prisoner swap since the Cold War.

Virginia Tech political scientist and foreign policy expert Paul Avey answered questions about the importance of the prisoner exchange.

How significant is this prisoner exchange with Russia?

“It’s wonderful to see Russia release U.S. citizens from prison: Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan, and Alsu Kurmasheva. Russia unjustly arrested and imprisoned all three. Gershkovitch and Kurmasheva are both journalists. Their release is a positive development for press freedom, which has been increasingly under assault around the globe, according to Reporters Without Borders. Freedom of the press, including freedom from intimidation, is a cornerstone of free and democratic societies.”

Why is this prisoner release happening now?

“The agreement with Russia appears to be a triumph for quiet, patient, and multilateral diplomacy by the Biden-Harris administration working with U.S. allies. It’s part of broader U.S. efforts to secure release of American citizens wrongfully detained or held hostage. President Biden said in a statement that his administration ‘has now brought home over 70 such Americans, many of whom were in captivity since before’ he took office.”

What affect might this exchange have on future relations with Russia?

“Though the prisoner exchange highlights the value of communication between rivals such as the U.S. and Russia, it is unlikely to alter broader U.S. and NATO geopolitical competition with Russia. Past exchanges have not shifted the trajectory. Policies toward the Russian-Ukrainian War will likely remain the same as well. The U.S. elections in November and developments on the battlefield will play more important roles in shaping those policies.”

About Paul Avey 

An associate professor of political science at Virginia Tech, Avey teaches about and researches nuclear politics, U.S. foreign policy, strategy, and international relations theory. He is the author of “Tempting Fate: Why Nonnuclear States Confront Nuclear Opponents.” Read more about him here.

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