Early COVID-19 pandemic not associated with significant physician turnover

Abstract: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M22-2504

URL goes live when the embargo lifts

An analysis of Medicare billing has found that physician turnover rates between 2010 and 2020 had both periods of increase and stability, with annual turnover rising from 5.3% to 7.6% (43%), between 2010 and 2018. However, early data covering the first three quarters of 2020 did not show that the early COVID-19 pandemic caused significant physician turnover. The analysis is published in Annals of Internal Medicine.

Medical groups, health systems, and professional associations are concerned about increases in physician turnover. Although physicians may turn over—move to a new practice or stop practicing—for many reasons, increasing turnover rates may suggest growing dissatisfaction with the practice of medicine or with the organization in which a physician practices. There are no national estimates of physician turnover, so it is not known whether turnover has increased, as is sometimes assumed.

Researchers from Weill Cornell Medical College and University of California San Diego analyzed 100% of traditional Medicare billing to create national estimates of physician turnover. Standardized turnover rates were compared by physician, practice, and patient characteristics. The authors found that the annual rate of turnover increased from 5.3 percent to 7.2 percent between 2010 and 2014, was stable through 2017, and increased again in 2018 to 7.6 percent. According to the authors, the main driver of the increase between 2010 and 2014 came from physicians who stopped practicing. The authors also found that in the second and third quarters of 2020, quarterly turnover was slightly lower than in the corresponding quarters of 2019. The authors note that there were higher rates of turnover among rural and female physicians as well as physicians who saw a large portion of dual-eligible-patients.

 

Media contacts: For an embargoed PDF, please contact Angela Collom at [email protected]. To speak with corresponding author Amelia M. Bond, PhD, please contact Christine Zuang at [email protected].

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