What UW political experts will be watching for on Election Day

Presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump enter Election Day nearly tied in national polls and facing tight battles in the swing states.

Millions of people have already voted early, but the remainder of Americans will cast their votes on Tuesday. Before the results start rolling in, UW News asked three University of Washington professors of political science to discuss what’s on their minds heading into the general election’s final hours.

James Long, professor of political science

I’m looking at two specific predictions. The first is whether one candidate has (more or less) a clean sweep of the swing states or whether they (more or less) tie and divide the electoral college votes from the swing states. The swing state polling is effectively tied, suggesting that the latter scenario is more likely. But what if the polling is systematically overestimating or underestimating one candidate’s popularity? I suspect this is the case, and that either Harris or Trump will sweep the swing states.

If I’m right, the second prediction involves: Which candidate will sweep? I suspect it is more likely that Harris would be the candidate to sweep over Trump. There is a lot of different types of evidence out there showing the polls are likely underestimating her support or over-estimating Trump’s. There is no evidence to suggest that the polls are underestimating Trump’s support or overestimating hers — but of course, they could be, and this is all reading tea leaves. I wouldn’t be that surprised if the swing states are more divided, and there is still the possibility that Trump could sweep them.

We will get lots of vote counts in by Tuesday night from Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, which will help us to see some trends.

Victor Menaldo, professor of political science

Like everybody else who feeds on the IV drip known as the presidential election’s horse race coverage, I will be monitoring Pennsylvania — the swingiest of swing states.

I will be looking for any evidence that Trump’s attempts to mobilize young men without college degrees by blitzing non-traditional media such as podcasts and securing endorsements from figures like Elon Musk made a big impact. I will also be watching to see whether turnout on the Republican side is influenced by President Biden’s off-the-cuff remarks about Trump’s supporters being garbage, whether he intended to say that or not.

I will also be looking for any evidence that Vice President Harris’s efforts to mobilize women around abortion and reproductive rights and against Trump’s misogynistic language and behavior made a huge impact. Similarly, whether her overtures to suburban Republican women and Independents with the aid of surrogates like Liz Cheney helped her cause.

There are other hypotheses that are up for testing:

Is the great re-sorting of the parties along educational lines — and cutting across other cleavages such as race, ethnicity and region — the big thing some analysts think it is? Will immigration really drive voters to the polls, particularly to vote for Trump in large numbers?

Will voters’ memory of 20% cumulative inflation since 2021, sky-high housing prices and relatively high interest rates be as salient as some analysts believe? Or will more recent trends of enduring economic strength and a soft landing stop the momentum toward Trump on the economy?

Finally, if Harris wins, is it because she executed an incredibly difficult feat with exceeding discipline? Did she successfully manage to reinvent her image in a few short months, credibly transforming into a centrist security hawk who prizes unity and bipartisanship despite significant baggage from her 2019 Democratic presidential primary flameout? In other words, was she able to shed her image as a hyper-progressive Bay Area liberal and come across as a unifier who appeals to folks across the political spectrum? If she wins, I am going to be looking for data that supports this thesis, because it will say a lot about American politics and the parties going forward.

Scott Lemieux, teaching professor of political science

This election presents difficult circumstances for the Democratic Party. In other elections across western democracies, incumbent governments have been defeated badly by voters angry about inflation and the other dislocations of the pandemic. The American election being a coin flip suggests that some different issues might be in play in the American context.

Recent, high-quality polling suggesting that Iowa — a state Trump easily carried in 2016 and 2020 — is close because of a major shift among women voters. This suggests that the overturning of Roe v. Wade because of former President Trump’s three nominations to the Supreme Court is making the election more competitive.

The decision of Iowa Republicans to pass a near-total abortion ban in a pro-choice state is the obvious explanation, and the abortion issue is one obvious reason that the outcome of the election is so uncertain.

For more information or to reach one of the faculty members, contact Lauren Kirschman at [email protected].