What’s next for Brazil: Cornell experts on economics, politics post-election

The first round of Brazil’s elections on Oct. 2 will see former leftist president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva face off against right-wing incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. The following Cornell University professors are available to discuss the implications for Brazil and South America.

Lourdes Casanova, senior lecturer and director of the Emerging Markets Institute, can speak to the economic implications of the election.

Casanova says:

“As Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva stands to win his third term as President of Brazil, the expectation is that he will be implementing a policy combining social policies with fiscal responsibility. We could expect increasing public investment, stopping privatizations which were implemented by the current government and a continuation of the cash-transfer schemes to stop hunger and help those in need. If the past is of any guide, he will keep, as in his previous two terms, financial responsibility. 

“Two main problems must be solved. Currently, inflation in Brazil is at 12% and the interest rate at 13%, which strangles the economy. The challenge is how to find a balance between keeping the inflation at bay and having a moderate level of interest that does not hinder the economy. And, at the same time, defend the Brazilian real, which at is at all-time low – 5.4 to the U.S. dollar.

“Latin America also needs to reinforce intraregional trade and investments. While Brazil has always kept its leading role in the region a bit ambivalent, it needs to take its leadership position and lead the regional trade agreement.”

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Gustavo Flores-Macias, professor of government and Associate Vice Provost for International Affairs, is an expert in Latin American politics.

Flores-Macias says:

“Polls suggest Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva enjoys a sizable advantage and might avoid a second round of voting, but President Jair Bolsonaro has discredited the electoral process and blamed the media for an uneven playing field. Several reports of violence and intimidation against Lula’s supporters have also emerged, and Bolsonaro’s proximity to the armed forces remains a concern if the election is contested. 

“Both candidates have pointed to their records in office to claim that only they can navigate the current international environment – growing inflation, high energy prices, and a depreciating real – as well as Brazil’s domestic challenges, including a fragmented political landscape, byzantine tax system, poor results on education spending, and an aging and deteriorating infrastructure.

“Whoever the winner is, one of the main priorities of the new administration will be to address the stagnation of Brazil’s living standards in the last decade.” 

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Kenneth Roberts, professor of government, studies political parties, populism and social movements in Latin America.

Roberts says:

“Brazilian society has become increasingly polarized politically over the past decade, and with the country preparing to vote this weekend in a presidential election that pits a former left-wing president against a right-wing populist incumbent, political violence between supporters of the rival candidates has become a growing concern. These concerns are magnified by the fact that the incumbent president, Jair Bolsonaro, has challenged the integrity of the electoral process and cultivated support from the military institutions in which he started his career. The current election thus poses a major test of the strength of democratic institutions in Latin America’s largest country.”

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