The effect of time resolution on energy system simulation in case of intermittent energies

Abstract

The management and integration of intermittent renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, require precise capacity planning due to their variable nature. This study investigated the efficacy of using hourly time resolution in energy system models, a common practice in capacity planning. Concerns have been raised about the ability of hourly data to accurately represent rapid fluctuations in energy production and demand since it inherently constantly under- or overestimates actual real-time conditions. This research compared the outputs of energy models using 60-min resolution data with those utilizing a 1-min resolution benchmark across various dimensions: stability of outputs, temporal performance, geographical performance, impact of starting time shifts in data sampling, and trend effects. Results indicate that models using 60-min resolution data maintain a high level of accuracy, with output deviations of less than 2 % from the benchmark. This finding provides strong support that the current significant number of research studies, based on 60-min resolution data, do not carry potentially biased results due to their time resolution and are suitable for capacity planning decisions, thereby aiding in policy formulation.