Optimal capacity planning for the electrification of personal transport: The interplay between flexible charging and energy system infrastructure

Abstract

This study analyses optimal capacity planning of the energy system in the context of large-scale diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs), and explores the potential benefits of flexible EV charging. Here, the open-source model GRIMSEL, which is characterized by high granular representation of energy consumers and low carbon technologies such as PV and batteries including various types of urban settings and buildings, is extended to model different types of driving behaviour and charging strategies. Importantly, flexible EV charging is tested with four temporal frameworks, namely immediate charging versus smart charging linked to a 24h, 60h, and 120h temporal window. Findings show that EV penetration strongly influences the level of optimal installed capacities for the energy system, with battery storage being more sensitive than PV. Second, EV charging flexibility enables greater PV, and significantly less battery storage deployment. Finally, the interplay between EV charging flexibility and grid reinforcement varies greatly depending on the type of urban setting and over time. Thus, the results in this study show notable implications for capacity planning that should be carefully considered by utilities and policymakers aiming to promote personal transport electrification.