Historic trial of former President Trump helps and hurts his campaign, experts explain

Former President Donald Trump faces an unprecedented array of legal entanglements as he campaigns for reelection, pending federal and Georgia criminal cases and U.S. Supreme Court oral arguments and decisions. These legal challenges have reached the highest level of stakes yet with jury selection completed in his New York state criminal trial. 

Virginia Tech experts explained why this trial carries such historical significance, and how it simultaneously strengthens and damages President Trump’s reelection efforts.

“Like much else involving President Trump, this case charging the former resident with 34 felony counts is an historic first,” said political science expert Karen Hult. “No former president has faced criminal charges that have led to a trial. No presumptive party nominee for the presidency has been tried on felony charges in the midst of a presidential campaign.”

“The trial in New York generates constant news coverage of Donald Trump, something he already experienced. However, this coverage predominantly portrays him in the context of his legal issues,” said public relations and communications expert Cayce Myers. “The trial in many ways strengthens Trump’s campaign narrative that he is a victim, unfairly targeted by a corrupt establishment. While most candidates would suffer from the negative publicity of a criminal trial, Trump turns these adversities into rallying points for his base.”

“The trial continues the ongoing Trump public ‘spectacle,’ complete with social media postings, candidate press conferences, and campaign rallies,” Hult said. “The impact on possible voters in the November general election is harder to gauge. For many Trump supporters, there likely are mobilization effects; for some other, less intense supporters, de-mobilization or disaffection are possible. For those who are independent or undecided or who do not pay much attention to politics, the trial may be enlightening for some, alienating for others, or marginally entertaining.”

“The trial in New York generates constant news coverage of Trump, predominantly portraying him in the context of his legal issues. The trial in many ways strengthens Trump’s campaign narrative that he is a victim, unfairly targeted by a corrupt establishment. While most candidates would suffer from the negative publicity of a criminal trial, Trump turns these adversities into rallying points for his base,” Myers said. “The primary drawback for Trump is that it restricts his ability to campaign nationally, particularly at his rallies. This lack of presence will likely mean Trump will need to campaign more than normal through surrogates, who lack his power and charisma.”

“At this stage, I would expect any effects would be marginal at best for the presidential race — though in a close race in ‘swing’ states, a few votes can make a difference. Candidates for ‘down-ticket’ races, including U.S. Senate and House, governorships, and state legislatures – perhaps especially Republicans — might have more reason for concern,” Hult said.

About Hult   
Karen Hult teaches political science at Virginia Tech and is Ph.D. Director of its Center for Public Administration & Policy, with expertise in the U.S. Presidency, federal and state politics, policy, and governance, and federal and state courts. See her bio.

About Myers 
Cayce Myers is a professor of public relations and director of graduate studies at the School of Communication at Virginia Tech. His work focuses on media history, political communication, and laws that affect public relations practice. He is the author of “Public Relations History: Theory Practice” and “Profession and Money in Politics: Campaign Fundraising in the 2020 Presidential Election.” Read more here.   

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