Forecasting Wildfires in an Unprecedented Time

With wildfires becoming stronger and more frequent, there is a need to predict when and how the next wildfire might occur.

By examining statistical data of California’s wildfires dating back more than 60 years, Michael Mann, an associate professor of geography at the George Washington University, has created a model that can forecast the likelihood of wildfires throughout the state from now until the year 2050. Predications are based on climate variations, indicators of tree and plant growth, population density, and potential ignition sources within each one-kilometer area.

According to Mann, California makes a great test case for use of this model because the ecosystems that exist within its borders are representative of what is found in the rest of the country. However, Mann says there has been a shift in the modeling in the last five years or so.

“Basically, none of the models can ‘keep up’ with wildfire risks caused by the mega drought. It’s truly unprecedented in the historical record we use for modeling. There are all kinds of consequences that ripple through everything from insurance to carbon credits and more.”

If you are looking for context on this matter, or would like to speak with Prof. Mann about mitigation strategies or the influence of climate change on wildfires, please do not hesitate to reach out to Tim Pierce at [email protected].