Measuring energy transition away from fossil fuels: A new index

Abstract

With the adoption of carbon neutrality policies, an increasing number of countries have implemented diverse measures to facilitate the energy transition away from fossil fuels. Ascertaining the efficacy of these measures towards meeting the goals of Paris Agreement and carbon neutrality has emerged as a critical concern in recent years. This study offers a comprehensive review of worldwide energy transitions to carbon neutrality, and introduces the Decarbonization Index (DCI), an innovative indicator designed to gauge the progress of a nation’s energy transition. The DCI quantifies the extent to which a country moves from the most carbon-intensive energy practices, enhancing quantitative grasp of energy transition logic and its connection to industrial evolution. The strength of the DCI rests in its ability to encapsulate the essence of energy decarbonization: the reduction of carbon in energy consumption. It establishes a definitive baseline for monitoring decarbonization efforts, thereby framing the historical evolution of energy transitions and providing comparative standards for policy formulation. Utilizing the DCI, this study evaluates the carbon neutrality efforts of the 15 highest carbon-emitting nations that have declared carbon neutrality agendas. These findings reveal that South Africa requires the highest annual DCI growth rate to achieve carbon neutrality, while France and Brazil are the most likely to attain this goal, given their substantial non-carbon energy sources such as hydropower and nuclear power. Nevertheless, the study uncovers a general trend: the current business-as-usual scenarios are insufficient to meet carbon neutrality objectives, underscoring an urgent call for accelerated global energy transition efforts.