Climate change may keep India from achieving its sustainable development goals

Heatwaves in India are increasing in frequency, intensity and lethality, burdening public health, agriculture, and other socio-economic and cultural systems. A study published in PLOS Climate by Ramit Debnath at University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom and colleagues suggests that heatwaves made more likely by climate change may impede India’s progress toward its sustainable development goals.

India has committed to achieving seventeen United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), including no poverty, good health and well being, and decent work and economic growth. However, current climate vulnerability assessments may not fully capture how heatwaves linked to climate change may impact SDG progress. In order to analyse India’s climate vulnerability, and how climate change may impact SDG progress, researchers conducted an analytical evaluation of India’s heat index (HI) with its climate vulnerability index, (CVI) a composite index using various indicators to account for socioeconomic, livelihood, and biophysical factors. They accessed a publicly available dataset on state-level climate vulnerability indicators from the Indian Government’s National Data & Analytics Platform to classify severity categories. The researchers then compared India’s progress in SDG over 20 years (2001-2021) with extreme weather-related mortality from 2001-2021.

The researchers found that heatwaves have weakened SDG progress more than previously estimated and that current assessment metrics may not sufficiently capture the nuances of India’s vulnerabilities to climate change impacts. For instance, in estimating HI, the study shows that nearly 90% of the country is in danger zone from heatwave impact. According to CVI, around 20% of the country is highly vulnerable to climate change. Similar effects were observed for the national capital, where HI estimates shows almost all of Delhi is threatened by severe heatwave impacts, which is not reflected in its recent state action plan for climate change. However, this study had several limitations, for example the incongruent timeframe for CVI data (2019-2020) and heat index data (2022). Future studies should incorporate more recent data.

According to the authors, “This study shows that heatwaves make more Indian states vulnerable to climate change than previously estimated with the CVI. The heatwaves in India and the Indian subcontinent become recurrent and long-lasting, it is high time that climate experts and policymakers reevaluate the metrics for assessing the country’s climate vulnerability. This offers a scope for developing a holistic vulnerability measure through international cooperation and partnership.”

The authors add: “Heat waves are getting more intense in India, putting 80% of the country’s people in danger, which remains unaccounted for in its current climate vulnerability assessment. If this impact is not addressed immediately, India can slow its progress towards sustainable development goals.”

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Press-only preview: https://plos.io/406ByyX

Citation: Debnath R, Bardhan R, Bell ML (2023) Lethal heatwaves are challenging India’s sustainable development. PLOS Clim 2(4): e0000156. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000156

Author Countries: UK, USA

Funding: This work was supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1144 to RD), Laudes Foundation (G111269 to RD), the Quadrature Climate Foundation (01-21-000149 to RD), Keynes Fund, Faculty of Economics (JHVH to RD and RB), and the Africa Albarado Grant (G115009 to RB). RD received salary from the Quadrature Climate Foundation, the Laudes Foundation, and the Keynes Fund. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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