Experts haven’t changed their estimates for COVID-19 immunity duration, despite Trump’s claim

During a campaign rally in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, President Donald Trump referenced his bout with the novel coronavirus by stating, “Who has had it here? Who’s had it? Yeah. A lot of people, a lot of people. Well, you’re the people I want to say hello to because you’re right now immune. You’re right now immune. Or they say that. You know, they hate to admit it because I had it. So in the old days they said, “Well, if you have it, you’re immune for life,” right? Once I got it, they give you four months. … It’s anybody else but me, you’re immune for life.”

We rate this claim as mostly false. Infectious disease experts did not shift from saying immunity was lifelong to saying it lasted only a few months for partisan reasons. Experts haven’t changed their estimates for immunity duration, which remains unknown. Most agree that it is not a “life-time” but 5-7 months.

Whether Pres. Trump is actually resistant to a second infection isn’t known. His unique treatment regimen (monoclonal antibodies) mean his potential immunity is more fleeting than that of most other people who have recovered from COVID-19. 

As reported by Factcheck.org….

“There is not enough information currently available to say if or for how long after infection someone is protected from getting COVID-19 again; this is called natural immunity,” explains a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention webpage updated on Oct. 14. “Early evidence suggests natural immunity from COVID-19 may not last very long, but more studies are needed to better understand this.”

Even from the beginning, experts did not expect immunity to be lifelong. As we explained back in April, based on what is known about other human coronaviruses, immunity to SARS-CoV-2 was estimated to last only a few years at most.

“Reasonable guesses are that on the short end there might be partial protection for about a year or close to a year. And on the long end it might be longer — it might be several years of good protection,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist and director of Harvard’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, in a call with reporters earlier this spring.

A standard proxy for immunity is the presence of Y-shaped immune proteins known as antibodies, especially so-called neutralizing antibodies that can glom on and clear invading viral particles even before the virus can enter cells.