SFU epidemiologist awarded Genome B.C. grant to develop COVID-19 statistical tool

SFU professor

Caroline Colijn’s

research and data modelling to map the spread of COVID-19 in British Columbia has helped her procure

funding from Genome B.C.

, a non-profit research organization that leads genomics innovation on Canada’s West Coast.

Colijn and her team of

researchers

will use the grant to develop a statistical test to measure how COVID-19 health policy measures, such as physical distancing, are faring in B.C.

Earlier research by Colijn has been helping to inform B.C.’s health policy on COVID-19 since the pandemic’s start.

The new funding will also be used to develop models estimating the strength of control measures, projecting the effects of new control measures, and determining the effectiveness of existing measures based on comparisons between locations.

“Right now, there aren’t a lot of simultaneous tools that help us do real-time estimates of how well some measures are working,” says Colijn.

As well, the test could be used beyond short-term forecasting for B.C. and applied to Canadian and international data.

As a Canada 150 Research Chair in Mathematics for Evolution, Infection and Public Health in SFU’s Department of Mathematics, Colijn carries out

research

that intersects the fields of mathematics, epidemiology and the evolution of pathogens.

Since February, Colijn and her team have been

working closely

with the B.C. Centre for Disease Control (BCCDC) to develop mathematical models that test the effectiveness of physical distancing measures adopted by the province in the face of the ongoing pandemic.

The effectiveness of physical distancing

Colijn’s research also suggests continuing with intermittent distancing measures to control COVID-19 transmission, and cautions against relaxing restrictions significantly as this could risk an exponential surge in the number of infections.

“If we relax it a little bit, keep it within the threshold, then it (number of cases) keeps declining, but at a slower rate.”

Colijn adds that widening testing for COVID-19 would also support relaxing restrictions. But for testing to be used as part of public health strategy, it needs to be coupled with isolating cases, finding more cases to test so as to trace contacts of people who are positive, and active case finding.

“Testing alone doesn’t do the trick, it’s stopping the transmission that is key.”

The road ahead for B.C.

“The picture in B.C. is optimistic as the public has done a great job of following guidelines,” she says. “We have been able to prevent high levels of mortality and infections in the general population, without overrunning our healthcare system and ICU capacities.”

This outcome will facilitate some relaxation in distancing measures and attempts to reopen the economy, which would likely be coupled with strong monitoring, widened testing, contact tracing and isolation of cases, says Colijn.

“And if we see more severe problems, there should be a willingness to go back to what we know works. The last thing we would want is to get complacent and undo the effects of the good that has been do so far.”

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