A new poll from the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Mainstreet Research USA reveals significant shifts in the 2024 U.S. presidential race, underscoring deep gender and racial divides among voters across the nation. Watch the video analysis of this report at faupolling.com.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead over former U.S. President Donald Trump nationally, with 47% of voters supporting her compared to Trump’s 43%. Among likely voters, Harris leads 49% to 45%. She has gained strong support among women, with 53% backing her, while 45% of men favor her. Trump’s base remains predominantly male, with 47% support from men, compared to 41% from women. Harris also holds substantial advantages among Black voters (73%), Hispanic voters (51%), and white college-educated voters (57%). Trump, however, continues to command strong support among white voters without a college degree, with 59% favoring him.
“Since her elevation to the top of the ticket, Vice President Harris has effectively appealed to women voters, and the gender gap has become more pronounced,” said Luzmarina Garcia, Ph.D., assistant professor of political science at FAU. “Harris has also reestablished the Democratic Party’s advantage with minority voters.”
Trump’s Support Erodes Among Independents
Harris has also made significant inroads among Independent voters, now capturing 48% of their support, compared to Trump’s 35%. This marks a notable shift from July when Independents were more evenly split, with 45% backing Harris and 43% supporting Trump.
“Trump is losing support from Independents compared to July, which could be a result of the Democratic Party convention and remains to be watched,” said Dukhong Kim, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at FAU. “If this pattern persists, it will be difficult for Trump to maintain an advantage in the election.”
Congressional Voting Preferences
The poll shows that 46% of respondents would vote for the Democratic Party candidate in their district, compared to 44% for the Republican Party candidate.
“The generic ballot illustrates just how closely divided the nation continues to be,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., professor of political science and co-director of the PolCom Lab. “It suggests that the current default is for close and tightly contested elections.”
Election Anxiety: Mixed Emotions Ahead of 2024
The poll reveals a stark emotional divide as the election approaches, with negative emotions slightly outweighing positive ones by 44% to 41%. This emotional split becomes more pronounced when viewed through the lens of voting intentions:
- Harris supporters: 52% positive, 35% negative
- Trump supporters: 34% positive, 49% negative
- Undecided voters: 23% positive, 50% negative
Notably, 27% of Democrats reported feeling excited about the election, while 32% of Republicans expressed fear.
“While Democrats seem energized by the Harris-Walz ticket, there’s a significant undercurrent of anxiety across the electorate,” said Carol Bishop Mills, Ph.D., professor of communication and co-director of the PolCom Lab. “These findings highlight the intense political polarization and uncertainty surrounding this election.”
Perception of Candidates
On the political spectrum, Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, representing the Democratic ticket, are generally perceived as left-leaning. Harris is viewed as more strongly on the far left (37%), compared to Walz (28%). However, Walz is seen as more moderate, with 18% of voters placing him in the center, compared to fewer voters unsure of Harris’ position. On the Republican side, Trump and Vance are viewed as right-leaning, with Trump categorized as far right by 37% of voters and Vance by 30%. Trump’s position is highly polarized, with voters seeing him as either far right or far left, while Vance has a higher percentage of voters uncertain about his placement. These perceptions highlight the ideological divide between the two tickets.
“Although both Trump and Harris are similarly seen as conservative and liberal, respectively, Tim Walz is viewed by voters as a more moderate candidate,” Wagner said. “That may change, but it does give the Democrats an opportunity to appeal to the center.”
Party Lines Define Satisfaction with U.S. Democracy
The survey found that 46% of Americans are satisfied with how democracy works in the U.S., while 38% are dissatisfied. However, the gap widens along party lines: 64% of Democrats express satisfaction compared to just 33% of Republicans.
Despite these differences, most Americans still believe in democratic principles. A strong 74% agree that democracy is the best system of government. This view is more common among older voters (81% of those 50 and up) and Democrats (85%) than younger voters (65% of those under 50) and Republicans (65%).
“The partisan and age splits on America’s democratic quality are concerning,” Kim said. “A substantial portion of voters (38%) are either very dissatisfied or somewhat dissatisfied, which could have negative implications for the future of our democracy.”
Social Media Influence Grows Among Young Voters
A significant portion of respondents rely on cable news (35%) and national network TV (24%) for political information. However, a notable shift in voter consumption patterns is emerging, with social media and podcasts becoming increasingly popular, especially among younger voters (20% for ages 18-49 vs. 7% for those 50+).
“This trend underscores the growing impact of social media influencers on public opinion,” said Robert E. Gutsche, Jr., Ph.D., associate professor in FAU’s School of Communication and Multimedia Studies. “With younger voters relying more on social media, the campaigns will have to reach them there.”
Methodology
The poll surveyed 929 registered U.S. voters from Aug. 23 to 25, using a combination of Interactive Voice Response and online panel methods. Conducted in both English and Spanish, the survey applied weights for gender, race, education and past vote. Party identification was self-reported. A likely voter screen was applied based on respondents’ stated voting intentions. While a precise margin of error cannot be calculated due to the mixed methodology, a comparable probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. It’s important to note that polls represent a snapshot in time and may not predict future outcomes. For full methodologies, visit www.faupolling.com/about/. For the poll’s full report, visit www.faupolling.com/polls/.
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About Florida Atlantic University: Florida Atlantic University, established in 1961, officially opened its doors in 1964 as the fifth public university in Florida. Today, the University serves more than 30,000 undergraduate and graduate students across six campuses located along the southeast Florida coast. In recent years, the University has doubled its research expenditures and outpaced its peers in student achievement rates. Through the coexistence of access and excellence, FAU embodies an innovative model where traditional achievement gaps vanish. FAU is designated a Hispanic-serving institution, ranked as a top public university by U.S. News & World Report and a High Research Activity institution by the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching. For more information, visit www.fau.edu.
About Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab: The Florida Atlantic University Department of Political Science and the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies, in collaboration in with Mainstreet Research, established the PolCom Lab to investigate and analyze public opinion and political trends across the nation, and particularly in the state of Florida. For more information, visit www.faupolling.com.
About Mainstreet Research: Founded in 2010, Mainstreet Research is recognized as one of Canada’s top public opinion and market research firms. Since our founding, we have been providing actionable and data-driven insights to our clients to help them make their most important evidence-based strategic decisions. Mainstreet Research is a proud corporate member of CRIC and exceeds all Canadian and international standards for market research and public opinion research.
