David Ortega, food economist and Noel W. Stuckman Chair in Food Economics and Policy in the Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics at Michigan State University, shares what to expect at the grocery store this holiday season. With rising food prices continuing to affect working families the hardest, here, Ortega breaks down recent pricing trends and offers practical advice on how to stretch your dollar on holiday staples.
How much have food prices increased in 2024 compared to 2023?
After a few of years of rapid price hikes, grocery inflation has finally slowed. Prices at the grocery store have risen just 1.3% over the past year — a relief for many families. Still, overall prices are more than 20% higher than they were four years ago, meaning many shoppers are still feeling the pinch.
What about holiday staples?
This season brings a mixed bag of price changes. The good news? Turkey prices are down. Thanks to producers better preparing for bird flu and holiday demand, turkey prices are trending lower, with retail costs about 2% down from last year and wholesale prices dropping around 11%. Ham, while still pricey, isn’t expected to climb much higher than last year’s near-record levels.
Fresh produce could also be a bright spot at the register. We can expect lower prices on seasonal items like apples, cranberries and potatoes. Some holiday staples, however, will likely cost a bit more. Eggs remain affected by bird flu issues, and peas and stuffing ingredients might see slight increases.
Why have prices risen so much over the past four years?
Over the past four years, Thanksgiving dinner costs have increased due to a perfect storm of factors that have affected both the supply and demand for food. The COVID-19 pandemic kicked things off by disrupting supply chains and changing consumer habits, making it challenging to stock holiday favorites. Then came severe droughts affecting crop yields, an outbreak of avian flu impacting turkey and egg prices, and global conflicts like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine driving up commodity costs. At the same time, some households accumulated savings during the pandemic and spent more on food. This mix of supply constraints and high demand fueled price increases. But as we head into Thanksgiving 2024, there’s some good news: while prices remain above pre-pandemic levels, major retailers are competing for shoppers with appealing deals on holiday essentials.
What deals can consumers expect at the grocery store?
With consumers becoming increasingly budget-conscious, stores are ramping up promotions and loyalty programs to attract shoppers. Retailers are working hard to keep holiday meals affordable, with some even matching 2019 prices. For example, Walmart has announced an “Inflation-Free” Thanksgiving meal for 8, priced around $56, or $7 per plate. Meanwhile, Aldi’s Thanksgiving meal basket for up to 10 people is priced at just under $5 per serving, making it one of its lowest-priced Thanksgiving options in the past five years. Beyond these headline deals, shoppers can expect discounts on staple items like turkeys, as retailers compete for customers this holiday season. With a bit of planning, these promotions can help make holiday meals more budget friendly.
Do you have any other tips for saving money during this season of holiday meal shopping?
Beyond grabbing advertised holiday deals, store brands are a great way to cut costs without compromising on quality — many are just as good as name brands, but priced lower. Making a detailed shopping list and sticking to it can also help keep costs in check, avoiding impulse buys. Shopping early for nonperishables or freezer-friendly items can let you catch sales on essentials before prices go up closer to the holidays.
Using your grocery store’s loyalty program or app can unlock extra savings and personalized discounts. And for a more budget-friendly holiday feast, consider hosting a potluck. Sharing dishes not only brings variety to the table but helps spread the costs among guests.
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