National research estimates and projections show a significant decline in new college students just around the corner, beginning after 2025. Triggered by the “birth dearth” of the 2008 economic recession, fewer students will graduate from high school through at least 2032, draining college enrollments and revenues. Admissions research firm, Othot, analyzed the data for 454 colleges and universities, and is making individual reports available to institutions upon request.
The report, Futureproofing Institutions Against the Demographic Cliff, analyzed enrollment trends and institution-level data, finding that deep differences exist in how schools are positioned to experience and address the forthcoming national reduction in college-age students.
“The data about the demographic cliff published thus far has been regional or by state, which isn’t particularly helpful if you’re making decisions for a specific school,” explained co-author Andy Hannah, the co-founder of Othot and adjunct professor at the University of Pittsburgh. “So, we went as deep as the public data would allow, looking under the hood at 454 colleges, and found that the coming enrollment shocks won’t be universal, and that the geography of where a school is located, for example, is not the only thing that matters to their future enrollments.”
Additional findings include:
- The coming reduction in traditional enrollees will squeeze most schools – 80 percent of the schools in the analysis will likely see overall enrollment declines between 2021-20
- Where a school is located is not determinative of enrollment, but where it recruits is.
- Even so, geographic concentration of recruiting matters since institutions with negative expected growth between 2020-28 recruit an average of 57 percent of their first-year students from their home states.
- Between 2025-28, a quarter of public institutions will experience enrollment declines of 9 percent or more. Just 11.8 percent of private schools are expected to see declines of that magnitude.
- Of the 114 institutions in the lowest quartile for expected growth, 40 (35 percent) also have retention rates in the lowest quarter of the sample, providing opportunities to soften the impact of enrollment declines by boosting retention. Of those 40, only eight are private schools.
As an example, even though the University of Chicago and the University of Illinois – Chicago are in the same region, they will experience the national and regional declines differently because of where they recruit. While the University of Chicago is projected to see first-time, first-year enrollments drop 4 percent, its urban neighbor will face a decline nearly three times as deep, at 11 percent.
In general, just because an institution is in a state that is expected to grow in the next decade, it does not mean the individual institution will grow. Even if a significant share of an institution’s students come from a growth state, competition for those students is likely to increase as other schools implement strategic changes to offset their projected losses.
“The headline here is that the winter of enrollment is coming,” said Patricia Beeson, Provost Emerita, University of Pittsburgh, who is the director of research at Othot. “And to be ready, to prepare, you need to know how those conditions will impact your recruitment market directly and what the opportunities and challenges are. You’ve got to get that information and see it clearly, and then act quickly. Otherwise, demographics will become destiny and for many schools; that future is not pretty.”
“Futureproofing Institutions Against the Demographic Cliff,” co-authored by Hannah and Beeson, examined multiple data points of the 454 schools from public sources, and used existing demographic projections to develop enrollment estimates for two periods: before 2025, when national enrollments are projected to increase slightly, and after 2025, when they are expected to sharply decline. The results are segmented by region, by state, by size of rise and fall, by institution type and by retention opportunities.
Individual universities of the 454 named in the report can request a growth analysis for their individual institution. Othot’s team of data scientists apply artificial intelligence and prescriptive analytics to data, helping higher education institutions reach their enrollment, student success, and advancement targets.
