Biden’s Withdrawal Scrambles the Race – and Makes History
With less than a month to go before the Democratic National Convention, President Joe Biden made the stunning announcement that he will not seek re-election and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place on the Democratic ticket. This Outlook News Bulletin gathers UChicago experts who can put the developments in historical context and discuss what happens next, including the impact of a revamped ticket on the Democratic party and the trajectory of the election. As always, reporters can find scholars on any topic through our Media Resources page and @UChicagoNews on Twitter. If you are on deadline and need to speak to someone, contact Alexia Elejalde-Ruiz, associate director of media relations via email at aelejalderuiz@uchicago.edu.
DEMOCRATS RE-ENERGIZED
Heidi Heitkamp is director of UChicago’s Institute of Politics and a former Democratic U.S. Senator from North Dakota. She’s discussed the importance of education in the 2024 election cycle and can speak to the impact of Biden’s decision on the trajectory of the election and the Democratic party, as well as how the party can vie for rural and swing voters.
EFFECTS ON TRUMP’S STRATEGY
William Howell is director of the Center for Effective Government and an expert on the American presidency. The author of “Presidents, Populism, and the Crisis of Democracy,” he has appeared in this week’s coverage of Biden’s decision to withdraw and can comment on the historical nature of Biden’s exit, and how Trump’s team will react.
THE YOUTH VOTE
Political scientist Cathy Cohen leads the GenForward Survey and the Black Youth Project. She has discussed President Biden’s waning polling numbers among Black voters and can comment on how a new Democratic ticket may influence the Black and youth vote.
WHAT’S NEXT FOR DEMOCRATS?
John Mark Hansen is an expert on public opinion. Following June’s presidential debate, he argued that President Biden should exit the race and bless a new nominee. He’s recently discussed former President Trump’s VP pick, and can explain how the Democrats will choose a nominee, up to and including the possibility of an open convention.
RESILIENT INSTITUTIONS
Aziz Huq is an expert in constitutional law and democratic backsliding. As co-author of “How to Save a Constitutional Democracy,” he argued that the rigidity of the Constitution can hasten democratic erosion. He can discuss how Biden’s exit from the race tests our democratic institutions and the resilience of the system.
HOW WILL VOTERS REACT?
Susan Stokes directs the Chicago Center on Democracy and authored “Why Bother? Rethinking Participation in Elections and Protests.” She’s argued that American democracy is deteriorating, and can discuss political polarization and whether the new Democratic nominee will energize progressives or alienate the Party’s centrists.
INTRAPARTY DYNAMICS
Ruth Bloch Rubin is an expert on legislative institutions and political parties. Her forthcoming book, “Divided Parties, Strong Leaders,” considers how leaders can sometimes draw strength from divided ranks. Bloch Rubin can discuss the intraparty and congressional dynamics that are likely to flow from Biden’s decision.
RADICALISM & VIOLENCE
Robert Pape is director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. He recently conducted a survey showing that 7% of Americans support the use of force to restore Trump to the presidency and 10% support it to keep him out. He can discuss how the changed race affects the potential for violence in the run-up to the election.
MODERATES & MAKING MOVES
Anthony Fowler can discuss what Democrats must do to nominate a new candidate and the role moderate voters could play in November. He hosts the Not Another Politics Podcast, has argued that the average American voter is more moderate than party platforms represent, and has spoken on the likelihood of decreased turnout this cycle.
BORDER & IMMIGRATION POLICY
Angela Garcia is a sociologist at the Crown Family School of Social Work, Policy, and Practice and an expert on how policy and legal frameworks shape the everyday lives and wellbeing of undocumented immigrants. The author of “Legal Passing,” she can discuss Kamala Harris’s work on immigration and the border, likely to be a target of GOP attacks.
FOREIGN POLICY
Paul Poast is an expert on global security and diplomacy. He’s discussed NATO’s prospects under a second Trump presidency and spoken on tensions brought about by an alliance between Russia and North Korea. Poast can comment on Biden’s foreign policy accomplishments, the likely approach of his successor, and Trump’s foreign policy agenda.
