Hurricane Milton’s rapid ascension—and its arrival coming on the heels of an already devastating Hurricane Helene—is the new normal, according to Tracy Kijewski-Correa, professor of engineering and global affairs and the William J. Pulte Director of the Pulte Institute for Global Development, at Notre Dame’s Keough School of Global Affairs.
“There have been three hurricanes impacting the Big Bend area of Florida in the past 13 months, each with different characteristics and landfalling in areas previously assumed not to be at high risk based on prior historical events,” Kijewski-Correa said. “They came in such rapid succession that the repairs from earlier storms were not even completed before the next struck. The models used to capture storm risk must contend with the fact that the past no longer predicts the future and that impacts can even be compounded by subsequent storms. Our inability to predict the full scope of future, potentially compounding events questions whether we can keep waiting for the storm to build back better. It’s time to build better before.”
Kijewski-Correa is an expert on disaster risk reduction, civil infrastructure and housing, and director of the National Science Foundation-supported Structural Extreme Events Reconnaissance (StEER) Network, and part of the study team that authored a National Academies report on compounding disasters in Gulf Coast communities.
“There are no natural disasters. Natural hazards become disasters as the result of human actions. Helene reiterates the importance of heeding warnings, despite prior storm experiences,” Kijewski-Correa said. “The failure to do so cost many lives. Both coastal storm surge in Florida and interior Appalachian flooding from Helene were predicted well in advance. Those predictions enabled officials and other trusted local actors to issue actionable guidance on how to prepare and mobilize support for the most vulnerable. Citizens need to heed that guidance. As the climate changes, we will have more extreme rainfall events. These storm events will exceed past precedent, making past experiences less relevant in deciding how to prepare and respond. Reliable guidance delivered by trusted actors must be met with good faith actions by citizens, now more than ever.”
More from Kijewski-Correa on Hurricane Milton, Helene.
To speak with Tracy Kijewski-Correa, contact Jessica Sieff, associate director of media relations, 574-631-3933, jsieff@nd.edu
