Recent election cycles have seen a significant decline in convention poll bounces due to increased political polarization and the timing of back-to-back conventions contributing to smaller gains in candidates’ polling numbers.
However, this year’s month-long gap between the Republican and Democratic conventions may allow for a more noticeable bounce compared to recent years. Todd Belt, director of the Political Management Program at the GW Graduate School of Political Management, is available to offer analysis and commentary on the polling bounce phenomena and how it compares to previous election cycles.
“In recent years because of hyper-partisanship, this balance has come down to about one or two points and it hasn’t been really significant,” says Belt. “What people are looking for is not necessarily will we get this bounce, which has also been short lived in recent years, but will this help Kamala Harris and Tim Walz to continue the momentum that they’ve built in the past few weeks as we go into the final stretch of the campaign?”
Hear more of Belt’s breakdown of the polling bounce phenomena in this video.
Belt is an expert on the presidency, campaigns and elections, mass media and politics, public opinion, and political humor. In addition to his expertise, Belt is co-author of four books and helps to run GW’s Political Poll.
If you would like to speak with Prof. Belt, please contact the GW Media Relations Specialist Tayah Frye at [email protected].
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