The one-year anniversary of the Hamas attacks in Israel arrived with no sign of a cease-fire agreement, and multiple signs that the fighting could expand to multiple fronts and go on for years — but if diplomacy can separate the coalition organized against Israel, opportunity exists to deescalate.
“Last week, Israel attacked Lebanon, Yemen, the West Bank, and Gaza, but the real target was Tehran. Israel blames Iran for instigating the Hamas Oct. 7 attack last year and sponsoring Hezbollah, Houthi, and Iraqi strikes into Israeli territory,” says Virginia Tech global affairs expert Ariel Ahram. “Israel aims both to disable its enemies and to warn any and all that ‘there is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach.’ But force alone is unlikely to break the Axis of Resistance or neutralize Iran.”
Ahram answered more questions about the expanding conflict and what a solution will require.
How is Iran fighting a proxy war with Israel?
“Iran has recruited a network of militant groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, various militia forces in Iraq, and the Hamas in Gaza, to comprise the so-called Axis of Resistance. This axis has been key to Iran’s expanding influence in the Middle East in the last 30 years. Tehran has used this network to frustrate and disrupt its adversaries instead of confronting Israel or the United States directly. Proxies came cheaply. With paltry subventions and a bit of ideological indoctrination, these acolytes could be trained in improvised weaponry and guerrilla tactics. Many fought and died in places where Iran preferred not to tread, such as the defense of the Assad regime in Syria. Meanwhile, Iran retained enough plausible deniability to escape recriminations and avoid escalation.”
How closely does this Axis of Resistance collaborate?
“It is important to remember that each member of the axis has its own parochial and local interests apart from Iran’s. These groups share similar origin stories, emerging in periods of civil war and domestic strife, championing constituency that had suffered repression and exclusions. Their demands for representation and self-determination were long ignored, both in the domestic arena and the larger international community. As a result, these groups evolved into omnibus militias, political parties, and social service organizations for communities which governments failed. Iran slotted easily into the role of foreign sponsor because these groups’ primary domestic antagonists were seen as American stooges. These groups each grew more robust with Iranian support, but also thuggish and politically uncompromising. Still, these groups also guarded their own autonomy, trying to avoid being taken as an Iranian pawn.”
Will Israel’s military strikes stop these proxy wars?
“Israel has punctured the idea that Iran might protect its proxies from harm. Hamas is in hiding, and Hezbollah is staggering. Iran, meanwhile, has offered them mostly moral support. When Iran launched its missile and drone barrage at Israel last week, Iranian leaders emphasized that was retaliation for Israel attacks on Iranian soil. Indeed, Iran pointedly refused to employ its own forces to defend its junior allies for fear of sparking further reprisals.
“But Israel’s military momentum is likely to be only temporary. Each of these groups has proven it can endure severe military pressure against their leadership, their fighters, and against surrounding civilians.”
What role can diplomacy play?
“As Iran proves unreliable, there may be a window to for diplomatic engagements. To isolate Iran, the international community must offer these junior partners in the axis opportunity to secure some of their domestic goals without relying on Iranian support.”
What is needed to bring a real end to these conflicts?
“Diplomacy, negotiation, and compromise can bring an end to this conflict. All are in short supply at the moment.”
About Ahram
Ariel I. Ahram is chair of government and international affairs in the Virginia Tech School of Public and International Affairs and author of “War and Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa” (Polity, 2020). From 2017-20, he was the primary investigator for the Proxy Wars Initiative, sponsored by the Carnegie Corporation of New York. Read more about him here.
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