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A Rutgers Expert’s Guide to Understanding 2020’s Campaign Polls

Four years after the presidential election surprised nearly everyone who followed public opinion polls, it is critical for 2020 voters to have a better understanding of how polling works and what they should look for as the election cycle heats up and the barrage of polls increase. 

Ashley Koning, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and an expert on American public opinion polling, shared tips for voters on how to bring critical thinking to bear when reading poll results during this election cycle.

“Public opinion polls are important for an informed democracy, but it’s important to understand each poll’s level of uncertainty. In 2016, the nationwide polls correctly predicted Secretary Clinton as the winner of the popular vote – but predicting President Trump as winner of the Electoral College depended more on statewide polling, which had one of the largest errors in decades,” Koning said. “Voters this year should remember that polls are a scientific way of understanding public opinion, while being aware of each poll’s methodology and margin of error.”

Koning, an assistant research professor at Rutgers University’s Eagleton Institute of Politics and the director of the institute’s Center for Public Interest Polling, discusses the future of polling in this video.

Her guidelines for savvy poll consumers include:

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