Uncertainties in climate model inputs

A study analyzing a large ensemble of climate simulations performed with an Earth System Model finds that small differences in the volcanic and anthropogenic aerosol forcing with which the model is run can result in significant differences in simulated global surface air temperature and Arctic sea ice area; the results show that uncertainties in natural and anthropogenic forcing can markedly affect simulations of Earth’s past and future climate, according to the authors.

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Article #20-16549: “Significant impact of forcing uncertainty in a large ensemble of climate model simulations,” by John C. Fyfe, Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Benjamin D. Santer, Jason N.S. Cole, and Nathan P. Gillett.

MEDIA CONTACT: John C. Fyfe, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, CANADA; tel: 250-893-8236; email:

[email protected]