Species extinction and survival under climate change

A study suggests how species might respond to near-future changes in climate. Climate change poses a major threat to biodiversity in the coming century, but which aspects of a changing climate cause extinctions and how species could persist under climate change remain unclear. Cristian Román-Palacios and John Wiens analyzed existing data on climate-associated range shifts of 538 globally distributed terrestrial plant and animal species to identify specific changes associated with extinctions, as well as mechanisms that may allow species to persist in the face of climate change. Local extinctions were associated with larger increases in maximum annual temperatures but smaller increases in mean annual temperatures relative to sites without extinctions. Based on species’ past rates of upslope dispersal and projected future temperatures, the authors estimated that 57-70% of species would not be able to disperse quickly enough to avoid extinction due to rising temperatures. However, many species were able to shift their thermal niches to tolerate some increases in maximum temperature. Taking this ability to shift niches into account reduced the number of predicted extinctions to 30% of species or less. The results suggest that niche shifts, which are rarely considered explicitly when predicting climate change impacts, may be more important for species survival under climate change than range shifts, according to the authors.

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Article #19-13007: “Recent responses to climate change reveal the drivers of species extinction and survival,” by Cristian Román-Palacios and John J. Wiens.

MEDIA CONTACT: John J. Wiens, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; tel: 520-621-0337, 631-255-5913; e-mail: <

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