Migration scenarios and European demographics

A study examines the degree to which negative economic consequences of population aging can be mitigated by changes in migration and labor-force participation in the European Union. In the European Union, the proportion of the population above age 65 is expected to rise to 30% by 2050. Guillaume Marois and colleagues modeled scenarios of labor force participation in a native population, as well as education and integration of immigrant populations. One scenario follows the example of Sweden, in which labor force participation is encouraged in the native population, particularly among women and the elderly. Another scenario was based on the immigration system of Canada, which is high-volume but highly selective. A third scenario modeled the low-volume and highly selective immigration scenario of Japan. Scenarios were further modeled with varying levels of immigrant education, productivity, and integration into the labor force. The results suggest that population aging can appear less detrimental when taking into account that future workers likely will be highly educated and productive. The authors suggest that lifting labor force participation among the general population, as in Sweden, and education-selective migration accompanied by high integration could improve economic dependency compared to current levels. In contrast, high immigration volumes, combined with both low education and integration, could increase economic dependency, according to the authors.

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Article #19-18988: “Population aging, migration, and productivity in Europe,” by Guillaume Marois, Alain Bélanger, and Wolfgang Lutz.

MEDIA CONTACT: Guillaume Marois, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, AUSTRIA; e-mail:

[email protected]

; Wolfgang Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, AUSTRIA; e-mail:

[email protected]